Mapping of vulnerability to climate change
During 2008-2009 the Swedish Energy Agency was commissioned by the government to map out the vulnerability of Sweden’s energy system to the effects of climate change. What parts are under potential threat from extreme weather? How are these potential threats affected by changes in climate?
Combitech had several assignments as part of the project. The first involved clarifying what had already been investigated, what investigations were ongoing and what remained in need of investigation within this complex field. To this end, working with the Agency and its experts, we compiled and analysed large quantities of existing data and documentation. We identified those areas that were relevant for the energy system and which had not been adequately examined. Most of the existing material involved a time frame of 100 years, which is the longest perspective relevant to a discussion of climate effects that may cause unexpected disruptions to/outage of the energy system. The majority of the installations within the energy system have a lifetime of 20-60 years. We therefore sorted out climate maps with a 40-year perspective, collated and interpreted the maps, and then used this as a major basis for working seminars with companies and industry organisations representing various energy sectors, such as power generation, district heating and cooling, oil and fuel suppliers, as well as natural and coal gas. Utilisation of biofuels is relevant to a number of these sectors and was therefore included in many of the seminars. Seminar participants expressed their thanks at being able to receive relevant and manageable climate map documentation which they could use in further work on their own risk and vulnerability analyses.
We used a variety of methods, including Internet questionnaires and telephone interviews, to map out the types and number of energy production and distribution installations present in each municipality throughout the country. Based on the mapping, the results of the working seminars and other investigations performed as part of the Energy Agency’s project, we produced proposals for a number of new measures that ought to be initiated at private, municipal and national level in order to meet the effects of climate change.
Our work has enabled the Energy Agency, industry organisations and energy companies to obtain a clearer picture of the effects of climate change on the various parts of the energy system. They can now proceed with prioritising measures based on the mapping and analysis that have been undertaken.